Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Brandon Nakashima
To win
+$36.80
Total payout
$56.80
Joint prob
67.4%
Combined odds
2.84
Fair odds
1.48
Edge
+91.3%
Expected value: +$18.26 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$18.26 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 67.4% · fair market: 34.3% · edge: +96.6%
Model probabilities Rafael Jodar 32.6% · Brandon Nakashima 67.4% Why Brandon Nakashima is favoured Brandon Nakashima's Elo (1655) is +44 over Rafael Jodar (1610); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 37.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 32.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 67.4% vs market 34.3% (edge +96.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.