Model probabilities Mark Lajal 32.7% · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 67.3% Why Juan Manuel Cerundolo is favoured Juan Manuel Cerundolo's Elo (1531) is +44 over Mark Lajal (1487); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 37.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 32.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.