Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tomas Martin Etcheverry
To win
+$31.60
Total payout
$51.60
Joint prob
49.4%
Combined odds
2.58
Fair odds
2.02
Edge
+27.5%
Expected value: +$5.51 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.51 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 49.4% · fair market: 37.5% · edge: +31.7%
Model probabilities Nuno Borges 50.6% · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 49.4% Why Nuno Borges is favoured Elo essentially level (1581 vs 1579) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market away: model 49.4% vs market 37.5% (edge +31.7%, suggested Kelly +17.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.