Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yihan Qu
To win
+$200.20
Total payout
$220.20
Joint prob
68.8%
Combined odds
11.01
Fair odds
1.45
Edge
+657.3%
Expected value: +$131.46 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$131.46 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.8% · fair market: 8.8% · edge: +683.2%
Model probabilities Harriet Dart 31.2% · Yihan Qu 68.8% Calibration Raw model: 29.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 31.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 68.8% vs market 8.8% (edge +683.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).