Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francisco Cerundolo
To win
+$12.20
Total payout
$32.20
Joint prob
72.7%
Combined odds
1.61
Fair odds
1.38
Edge
+17.0%
Expected value: +$3.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 72.7% · fair market: 60.6% · edge: +19.9%
Model probabilities Jan-Lennard Struff 27.3% · Francisco Cerundolo 72.7% Why Francisco Cerundolo is favoured Francisco Cerundolo's Elo (1673) is +165 over Jan-Lennard Struff (1508); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 18.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 72.7% vs market 60.6% (edge +19.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.