Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Carlos Alcaraz
To win
+$2.60
Total payout
$22.60
Joint prob
89.8%
Combined odds
1.13
Fair odds
1.11
Edge
+1.5%
Expected value: +$0.30 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.30 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 89.8% · fair market: 85.5% · edge: +5.1%
Model probabilities Carlos Alcaraz 89.8% · Denis Shapovalov 10.2% Why Carlos Alcaraz is favoured Carlos Alcaraz's Elo (2035) is +429 over Denis Shapovalov (1606); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 94.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 89.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 89.8% vs market 85.5% (edge +5.1%, suggested Kelly +11.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.