Model probabilities Xinyu Wang 38.7% · Hanne Vandewinkel 61.3% Why Hanne Vandewinkel is favoured Elo essentially level (1487 vs 1482) — winner depends on context. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 51.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 38.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.