Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tomas Martin Etcheverry
To win
+$40.20
Total payout
$60.20
Joint prob
33.3%
Combined odds
3.01
Fair odds
3.00
Edge
+0.3%
Expected value: +$0.07 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.07 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 33.3% · fair market: 32.2% · edge: +3.5%
Model probabilities Andrey Rublev 66.7% · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 33.3% Why Andrey Rublev is favoured Andrey Rublev's Elo (1642) is +81 over Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1561); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 70.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 66.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 33.3% vs market 32.2% (edge +3.5%, suggested Kelly +0.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.