Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Iga Swiatek
To win
+$14.00
Total payout
$34.00
Joint prob
67.0%
Combined odds
1.70
Fair odds
1.49
Edge
+13.8%
Expected value: +$2.77 on a $20 stake.
No material integrity flags or significant negative morale/squad harmony events have been reported for either Marta Kostyuk or Iga Swiatek within the last 14 days. Both players are actively competing and have won their recent matches in the WTA Canadian Open. A minor positive morale event for Marta Kostyuk was reported.
Marta Kostyuk received a personal letter from a young fan prior to her WTA 1000 match in Toronto, which she stated gave her 'superpowers' and she subsequently secured a straight-sets victory.
Iga Swiatek has been in strong form at the Canadian Open, advancing to the Round of 16 after defeating Viktorija Golubic 6-2, 6-1 in 66 minutes on Thursday. She also secured a 6-0, 6-3 win over Sara Bejlek in an earlier round.
Marta Kostyuk has also shown good form in the Canadian Open, reaching the Round of 16 by defeating Madison Keys 6-3, 6-1 on Thursday. She previously beat Katherine Sebov 7-6 (4), 6-0.
Expected value: +$2.77 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 67.0% · fair market: 57.1% · edge: +17.3%
Model probabilities Marta Kostyuk 33.0% · Iga Swiatek 67.0% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1869) is +63 over Marta Kostyuk (1806); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 67.0% vs market 57.1% (edge +17.3%, suggested Kelly +19.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.