Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Eva Lys
To win
+$140.00
Total payout
$160.00
Joint prob
36.0%
Combined odds
8.00
Fair odds
2.78
Edge
+187.9%
Expected value: +$37.58 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$37.58 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 36.0% · fair market: 12.1% · edge: +197.7%
Model probabilities Mirra Andreeva 64.0% · Eva Lys 36.0% Why Mirra Andreeva is favoured Mirra Andreeva's Elo (1804) is +189 over Eva Lys (1616); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 83.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 64.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 36.0% vs market 11.6% (edge +210.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.