Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex Michelsen
To win
+$7.80
Total payout
$27.80
Joint prob
80.6%
Combined odds
1.39
Fair odds
1.24
Edge
+12.0%
Expected value: +$2.40 on a $20 stake.
No material integrity, morale, or squad-news flags found in the last 14 days.
Expected value: +$2.40 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.6% · fair market: 69.9% · edge: +15.3%
Model probabilities Daniel Merida Aguilar 19.4% · Alex Michelsen 80.6% Why Alex Michelsen is favoured Alex Michelsen's Elo (1682) is +158 over Daniel Merida Aguilar (1523); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market away: model 80.6% vs market 69.9% (edge +15.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.