Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maja Chwalinska
To win
+$18.80
Total payout
$38.80
Joint prob
57.2%
Combined odds
1.94
Fair odds
1.75
Edge
+11.1%
Expected value: +$2.21 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.21 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 57.2% · fair market: 49.9% · edge: +14.8%
Model probabilities Cristina Bucsa 42.8% · Maja Chwalinska 57.2% Why Maja Chwalinska is favoured Cristina Bucsa's Elo (1542) is +35 over Maja Chwalinska (1506); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 60.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 57.2% vs market 49.9% (edge +14.8%, suggested Kelly +11.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.