Model probabilities Jaime Faria 26.9% · Lorenzo Musetti 73.1% Why Lorenzo Musetti is favoured Lorenzo Musetti's Elo (1707) is +172 over Jaime Faria (1535); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 18.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.