Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yulia Putintseva
To win
+$44.00
Total payout
$64.00
Joint prob
34.9%
Combined odds
3.20
Fair odds
2.87
Edge
+11.6%
Expected value: +$2.31 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.31 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 34.9% · fair market: 30.4% · edge: +14.5%
Model probabilities Qinwen Zheng 65.1% · Yulia Putintseva 34.9% Why Qinwen Zheng is favoured Qinwen Zheng's Elo (1735) is +206 over Yulia Putintseva (1529); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 84.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 65.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 34.9% vs market 28.3% (edge +23.0%, suggested Kelly +8.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.