▸ Sealed before kickoff2.6h before kickoff2026-08-06 21:31 UTC· result settled — verifiable
73%
High confidence
modest rating gap · strong sample · confident top pick
How the model did
Final
0 — 1
Arthur Rinderknech won
✕ Model was wrong
Model assigned
23.0%
to arthur rinderknech
Model's top pick
home
top probability
Brier (↓ better)
1.186
Log loss (↓ better)
1.470
Graded Aug 7, 2026 · 04:03
Form & matchup
Frances Tiafoe
Elo 1746
No recent matches on file.
Arthur Rinderknech
Elo 1596
No recent matches on file.
Rating edge
Frances Tiafoe +151
Confidence: 100%
Head to head
No prior meetings on file.
Rest days
Frances Tiafoe
–
Arthur Rinderknech
–
Model probability
v0.1.0-elo-logistic ·
Frances Tiafoe
77.0%
Arthur Rinderknech
23.0%
0 priced, 11 markets without prices hidden
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Reasoning
Model probabilities
Frances Tiafoe 77.0% · Arthur Rinderknech 23.0%
Why Frances Tiafoe is favoured
Frances Tiafoe's Elo (1734) is +125 over Arthur Rinderknech (1609); high confidence.
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