Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Aleksandar Kovacevic
To win
+$57.60
Total payout
$77.60
Joint prob
45.2%
Combined odds
3.88
Fair odds
2.21
Edge
+75.2%
Expected value: +$15.04 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$15.04 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 45.2% · fair market: 25.1% · edge: +79.9%
Model probabilities Brandon Nakashima 54.8% · Aleksandar Kovacevic 45.2% Why Brandon Nakashima is favoured Brandon Nakashima's Elo (1669) is +166 over Aleksandar Kovacevic (1503); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 81.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 45.2% vs market 25.1% (edge +79.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.