Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 93.2% · fair market: 90.6% · edge: +2.9%
Model probabilities Carlos Alcaraz 93.2% · Matteo Arnaldi 6.8% Why Carlos Alcaraz is favoured Carlos Alcaraz's Elo (2035) is +529 over Matteo Arnaldi (1505); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 97.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 93.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.