Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Fils
To win
+$13.40
Total payout
$33.40
Joint prob
62.9%
Combined odds
1.67
Fair odds
1.59
Edge
+5.0%
Expected value: +$1.01 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.01 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.9% · fair market: 58.6% · edge: +7.4%
Model probabilities Jiri Lehecka 37.1% · Arthur Fils 62.9% Why Arthur Fils is favoured Arthur Fils's Elo (1779) is +50 over Jiri Lehecka (1730); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 36.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 37.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 62.9% vs market 58.6% (edge +7.4%, suggested Kelly +7.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.