Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · McCartney Kessler
To win
+$22.60
Total payout
$42.60
Joint prob
66.5%
Combined odds
2.13
Fair odds
1.50
Edge
+41.7%
Expected value: +$8.35 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.35 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 66.5% · fair market: 45.5% · edge: +46.2%
Model probabilities Caty McNally 33.5% · McCartney Kessler 66.5% Why McCartney Kessler is favoured McCartney Kessler's Elo (1610) is +37 over Caty McNally (1573); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 39.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 33.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 66.5% vs market 45.5% (edge +46.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).