Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lin Zhu
To win
+$19.00
Total payout
$39.00
Joint prob
56.8%
Combined odds
1.95
Fair odds
1.76
Edge
+10.7%
Expected value: +$2.13 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.13 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.8% · fair market: 49.7% · edge: +14.1%
Model probabilities Alycia Parks 43.2% · Lin Zhu 56.8% Why Lin Zhu is favoured Lin Zhu's Elo (1525) is +17 over Alycia Parks (1508); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 44.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 56.8% vs market 49.7% (edge +14.1%, suggested Kelly +11.2% of bankroll).