Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Daniel Merida Aguilar
To win
+$28.20
Total payout
$48.20
Joint prob
48.3%
Combined odds
2.41
Fair odds
2.07
Edge
+16.4%
Expected value: +$3.29 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.29 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.3% · fair market: 40.5% · edge: +19.3%
Model probabilities Alex Michelsen 51.7% · Daniel Merida Aguilar 48.3% Why Alex Michelsen is favoured Alex Michelsen's Elo (1655) is +52 over Daniel Merida Aguilar (1603); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 64.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 48.3% vs market 40.5% (edge +19.3%, suggested Kelly +11.7% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.