Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Katie Boulter
To win
+$6.80
Total payout
$26.80
Joint prob
80.8%
Combined odds
1.34
Fair odds
1.24
Edge
+8.3%
Expected value: +$1.66 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.66 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.8% · fair market: 72.5% · edge: +11.4%
Model probabilities Katie Boulter 80.8% · Kayla Cross 19.2% Why Katie Boulter is favoured Katie Boulter's Elo (1626) is +161 over Kayla Cross (1465); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market home: model 80.8% vs market 72.5% (edge +11.4%, suggested Kelly +24.5% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.