Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marcos Giron
To win
+$30.00
Total payout
$50.00
Joint prob
53.1%
Combined odds
2.50
Fair odds
1.88
Edge
+32.7%
Expected value: +$6.53 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.53 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.1% · fair market: 38.9% · edge: +36.5%
Model probabilities Marcos Giron 53.1% · Ignacio Buse 46.9% Why Marcos Giron is favoured Marcos Giron's Elo (1534) is +63 over Ignacio Buse (1471); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 67.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 53.1% vs market 38.9% (edge +36.5%, suggested Kelly +21.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.