Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Himeno Sakatsume
To win
+$33.40
Total payout
$53.40
Joint prob
55.0%
Combined odds
2.67
Fair odds
1.82
Edge
+46.8%
Expected value: +$9.36 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.36 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 55.0% · fair market: 36.6% · edge: +50.3%
Model probabilities Cristina Bucsa 45.0% · Himeno Sakatsume 55.0% Why Himeno Sakatsume is favoured Elo essentially level (1524 vs 1518) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 51.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 55.0% vs market 35.0% (edge +57.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.