Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Carlos Alcaraz
To win
+$2.60
Total payout
$22.60
Joint prob
89.2%
Combined odds
1.13
Fair odds
1.12
Edge
+0.8%
Expected value: +$0.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.17 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 89.2% · fair market: 86.2% · edge: +3.5%
Model probabilities Carlos Alcaraz 89.2% · Jaume Munar 10.8% Why Carlos Alcaraz is favoured Carlos Alcaraz's Elo (2036) is +414 over Jaume Munar (1622); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 94.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 89.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 89.2% vs market 86.2% (edge +3.5%, suggested Kelly +6.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.