Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Stefanos Tsitsipas
To win
+$31.60
Total payout
$51.60
Joint prob
43.8%
Combined odds
2.58
Fair odds
2.28
Edge
+12.9%
Expected value: +$2.58 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.58 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 43.8% · fair market: 37.8% · edge: +15.7%
Model probabilities Jiri Lehecka 56.2% · Stefanos Tsitsipas 43.8% Why Jiri Lehecka is favoured Jiri Lehecka's Elo (1723) is +91 over Stefanos Tsitsipas (1632); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 72.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 56.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 43.8% vs market 37.8% (edge +15.7%, suggested Kelly +8.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.