Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Rinderknech
To win
+$12.20
Total payout
$32.20
Joint prob
63.3%
Combined odds
1.61
Fair odds
1.58
Edge
+2.0%
Expected value: +$0.39 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.39 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.3% · fair market: 60.3% · edge: +5.0%
Model probabilities Alex Molcan 36.7% · Arthur Rinderknech 63.3% Why Arthur Rinderknech is favoured Arthur Rinderknech's Elo (1596) is +49 over Alex Molcan (1547); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 63.3% vs market 60.3% (edge +5.0%, suggested Kelly +3.2% of bankroll).