Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
To win
+$18.40
Total payout
$38.40
Joint prob
56.0%
Combined odds
1.92
Fair odds
1.79
Edge
+7.6%
Expected value: +$1.51 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.51 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.0% · fair market: 50.5% · edge: +10.9%
Model probabilities Darja Vidmanova 44.0% · Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 56.0% Calibration Raw model: 49.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 56.0% vs market 50.5% (edge +10.9%, suggested Kelly +8.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.