Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ekaterina Alexandrova
To win
+$18.00
Total payout
$38.00
Joint prob
73.7%
Combined odds
1.90
Fair odds
1.36
Edge
+40.0%
Expected value: +$8.00 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.00 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.7% · fair market: 50.9% · edge: +44.7%
Model probabilities Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 26.3% · Ekaterina Alexandrova 73.7% Why Ekaterina Alexandrova is favoured Ekaterina Alexandrova's Elo (1614) is +100 over Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (1514); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market away: model 73.7% vs market 50.9% (edge +44.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.