Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Clara Tauson
To win
+$10.60
Total payout
$30.60
Joint prob
71.1%
Combined odds
1.53
Fair odds
1.41
Edge
+8.9%
Expected value: +$1.77 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.77 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 71.1% · fair market: 63.1% · edge: +12.7%
Model probabilities Clara Tauson 71.1% · Polina Kudermetova 28.9% Why Clara Tauson is favoured Clara Tauson's Elo (1589) is +137 over Polina Kudermetova (1451); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 78.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 71.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 71.1% vs market 63.1% (edge +12.7%, suggested Kelly +16.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.