Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex Molcan
To win
+$65.60
Total payout
$85.60
Joint prob
38.0%
Combined odds
4.28
Fair odds
2.63
Edge
+62.8%
Expected value: +$12.55 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$12.55 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.0% · fair market: 22.7% · edge: +67.2%
Model probabilities Alex Molcan 38.0% · Karen Khachanov 62.0% Why Karen Khachanov is favoured Karen Khachanov's Elo (1589) is +42 over Alex Molcan (1547); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 38.0% vs market 22.7% (edge +67.2%, suggested Kelly +19.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.