Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Amanda Anisimova
To win
+$26.80
Total payout
$46.80
Joint prob
44.3%
Combined odds
2.34
Fair odds
2.26
Edge
+3.7%
Expected value: +$0.73 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.73 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 44.3% · fair market: 41.8% · edge: +6.0%
Model probabilities Elina Svitolina 55.7% · Amanda Anisimova 44.3% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1844) is +19 over Amanda Anisimova (1825); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 44.3% vs market 41.8% (edge +6.0%, suggested Kelly +2.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.