Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Fabian Marozsan
To win
+$28.80
Total payout
$48.80
Joint prob
51.2%
Combined odds
2.44
Fair odds
1.95
Edge
+24.9%
Expected value: +$4.98 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.98 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 51.2% · fair market: 39.9% · edge: +28.3%
Model probabilities Fabian Marozsan 51.2% · Michael Zheng 48.8% Why Fabian Marozsan is favoured Fabian Marozsan's Elo (1560) is +48 over Michael Zheng (1511); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 63.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 51.2% vs market 39.9% (edge +28.3%, suggested Kelly +17.3% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.