Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sun Xinran
To win
+$39.00
Total payout
$59.00
Joint prob
42.9%
Combined odds
2.95
Fair odds
2.33
Edge
+26.6%
Expected value: +$5.31 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.31 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 42.9% · fair market: 33.0% · edge: +30.2%
Model probabilities Sun Xinran 42.9% · Cristina Bucsa 57.1% Why Cristina Bucsa is favoured Cristina Bucsa's Elo (1540) is +19 over Sun Xinran (1521); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 44.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 42.9% vs market 33.0% (edge +30.2%, suggested Kelly +13.6% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.