Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Aoi Ito
To win
+$62.40
Total payout
$82.40
Joint prob
34.0%
Combined odds
4.12
Fair odds
2.94
Edge
+40.1%
Expected value: +$8.02 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.02 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 34.0% · fair market: 23.6% · edge: +44.3%
Model probabilities Aoi Ito 34.0% · Kimberly Birrell 66.0% Why Kimberly Birrell is favoured Kimberly Birrell's Elo (1544) is +63 over Aoi Ito (1481); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 32.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 34.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 34.0% vs market 23.6% (edge +44.3%, suggested Kelly +12.9% of bankroll).