Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Hugo Dellien
To win
+$72.00
Total payout
$92.00
Joint prob
57.5%
Combined odds
4.60
Fair odds
1.74
Edge
+164.6%
Expected value: +$32.92 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$32.92 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 57.5% · fair market: 20.8% · edge: +176.2%
Model probabilities Sho Shimabukuro 42.5% · Hugo Dellien 57.5% Why Hugo Dellien is favoured Sho Shimabukuro's Elo (1447) is +33 over Hugo Dellien (1414); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 59.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 57.5% vs market 20.8% (edge +176.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.