Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Eva Lys
To win
+$14.40
Total payout
$34.40
Joint prob
74.5%
Combined odds
1.72
Fair odds
1.34
Edge
+28.1%
Expected value: +$5.62 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.62 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.5% · fair market: 56.2% · edge: +32.4%
Model probabilities Sofia Kenin 25.5% · Eva Lys 74.5% Why Eva Lys is favoured Eva Lys's Elo (1616) is +133 over Sofia Kenin (1483); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 22.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 74.5% vs market 56.2% (edge +32.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).