Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marco Trungelliti
To win
+$34.00
Total payout
$54.00
Joint prob
42.2%
Combined odds
2.70
Fair odds
2.37
Edge
+13.8%
Expected value: +$2.77 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.77 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 42.2% · fair market: 35.9% · edge: +17.6%
Model probabilities Marco Trungelliti 42.2% · Rei Sakamoto 57.8% Why Rei Sakamoto is favoured Rei Sakamoto's Elo (1494) is +33 over Marco Trungelliti (1461); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 40.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 42.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 42.2% vs market 35.9% (edge +17.6%, suggested Kelly +8.1% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.