Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sebastian Ofner
To win
+$29.40
Total payout
$49.40
Joint prob
46.7%
Combined odds
2.47
Fair odds
2.14
Edge
+15.3%
Expected value: +$3.06 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.06 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.7% · fair market: 38.7% · edge: +20.6%
Jacob Fearnley is entering the ATP Canadian Open qualifier with a strong recent performance, having won four of his last five matches. He appears to be in good physical condition with no recent injury concerns reported within the last seven days.
Lineup: Expected to play in the ATP Canadian Open qualifier as scheduled.
Sebastian Ofner is scheduled to compete in the ATP Canadian Open qualifier, despite a challenging recent run of form with only one win in his last five matches. While he has a history of heel and wrist issues, no new injuries have been reported within the last seven days.
Lineup: Expected to play in the ATP Canadian Open qualifier as scheduled.
“Jacob Fearnley enters Canadian Open qualifier with strong recent form, while Sebastian Ofner looks to rebound from a series of recent losses.”
Model probabilities Jacob Fearnley 53.3% · Sebastian Ofner 46.7% Why Jacob Fearnley is favoured Elo essentially level (1448 vs 1449) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market away: model 46.7% vs market 38.7% (edge +20.6%, suggested Kelly +10.4% of bankroll). News context Jacob Fearnley enters Canadian Open qualifier with strong recent form, while Sebastian Ofner looks to rebound from a series of recent losses. Jacob Fearnley: Jacob Fearnley is entering the ATP Canadian Open qualifier with a strong recent performance, having won four of his last five matches. He appears to be in good physical condition with no recent injury concerns reported within the last seven days. Sebastian Ofner: Sebastian Ofner is scheduled to compete in the ATP Canadian Open qualifier, despite a challenging recent run of form with only one win in his last five matches. While he has a history of heel and wrist issues, no new injuries have been reported within the last seven days.