Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Belinda Bencic
To win
+$4.60
Total payout
$24.60
Joint prob
81.8%
Combined odds
1.23
Fair odds
1.22
Edge
+0.6%
Expected value: +$0.13 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.13 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.8% · fair market: 79.0% · edge: +3.6%
Model probabilities Lois Boisson 18.2% · Belinda Bencic 81.8% Calibration Raw model: 10.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 18.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 81.8% vs market 79.0% (edge +3.6%, suggested Kelly +2.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.