Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tomas Martin Etcheverry
To win
+$20.20
Total payout
$40.20
Joint prob
58.4%
Combined odds
2.01
Fair odds
1.71
Edge
+17.4%
Expected value: +$3.48 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.48 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 58.4% · fair market: 48.6% · edge: +20.2%
Model probabilities Tomas Martin Etcheverry 58.4% · Mariano Navone 41.6% Why Tomas Martin Etcheverry is favoured Tomas Martin Etcheverry's Elo (1574) is +114 over Mariano Navone (1460); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 75.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 58.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 58.4% vs market 48.6% (edge +20.2%, suggested Kelly +17.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.