Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tristan Schoolkate
To win
+$51.40
Total payout
$71.40
Joint prob
46.0%
Combined odds
3.57
Fair odds
2.18
Edge
+64.1%
Expected value: +$12.83 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$12.83 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.0% · fair market: 27.1% · edge: +69.4%
Model probabilities Nishesh Basavareddy 54.0% · Tristan Schoolkate 46.0% Why Nishesh Basavareddy is favoured Nishesh Basavareddy's Elo (1507) is +71 over Tristan Schoolkate (1436); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 68.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 46.0% vs market 27.1% (edge +69.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.