Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jan Choinski
To win
+$35.40
Total payout
$55.40
Joint prob
48.5%
Combined odds
2.77
Fair odds
2.06
Edge
+34.5%
Expected value: +$6.89 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.89 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.5% · fair market: 35.1% · edge: +38.2%
Model probabilities Thiago Agustin Tirante 51.5% · Jan Choinski 48.5% Why Thiago Agustin Tirante is favoured Thiago Agustin Tirante's Elo (1567) is +120 over Jan Choinski (1447); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 76.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 48.5% vs market 35.1% (edge +38.2%, suggested Kelly +19.5% of bankroll).