Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Janice Tjen
To win
+$104.40
Total payout
$124.40
Joint prob
29.3%
Combined odds
6.22
Fair odds
3.42
Edge
+82.1%
Expected value: +$16.42 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$16.42 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 29.3% · fair market: 15.6% · edge: +87.6%
Model probabilities Mirra Andreeva 70.7% · Janice Tjen 29.3% Why Mirra Andreeva is favoured Mirra Andreeva's Elo (1799) is +298 over Janice Tjen (1501); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 90.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 70.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 29.3% vs market 15.6% (edge +87.6%, suggested Kelly +15.7% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.