Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Learner Tien
To win
+$15.20
Total payout
$35.20
Joint prob
68.3%
Combined odds
1.76
Fair odds
1.46
Edge
+20.2%
Expected value: +$4.05 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.05 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.3% · fair market: 55.2% · edge: +23.7%
Model probabilities Stefanos Tsitsipas 31.7% · Learner Tien 68.3% Why Learner Tien is favoured Learner Tien's Elo (1731) is +91 over Stefanos Tsitsipas (1640); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 27.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 31.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 68.3% vs market 55.2% (edge +23.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.