Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Petra Marcinko
To win
+$16.00
Total payout
$36.00
Joint prob
64.2%
Combined odds
1.80
Fair odds
1.56
Edge
+15.6%
Expected value: +$3.13 on a $20 stake.
Simona Waltert has entered the main draw of the WTA Cincinnati Open as an alternate due to Karolina Muchova's withdrawal. Waltert is currently on a seven-match losing streak at the Tour level, which could impact her morale. No integrity flags or other significant morale or squad harmony issues were found for either player.
Simona Waltert is currently on a seven-match losing streak at the Tour level, which may affect her morale and on-court performance.
Simona Waltert is expected to play, having moved into the main draw as a replacement for the injured Karolina Muchova.
Petra Marcinko is expected to play in the first round of the Cincinnati Open.
Expected value: +$3.13 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.2% · fair market: 53.7% · edge: +19.6%
Model probabilities Simona Waltert 35.8% · Petra Marcinko 64.2% Why Petra Marcinko is favoured Petra Marcinko's Elo (1476) is +18 over Simona Waltert (1458); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 44.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 35.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 64.2% vs market 53.7% (edge +19.6%, suggested Kelly +19.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.