Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.9% · fair market: 80.9% · edge: +1.2%
Model probabilities Linda Noskova 81.9% · Elena Gabriela Ruse 18.1% Why Linda Noskova is favoured Linda Noskova's Elo (1777) is +273 over Elena Gabriela Ruse (1503); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 88.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 81.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.