Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Carlos Alcaraz
To win
+$5.60
Total payout
$25.60
Joint prob
85.0%
Combined odds
1.28
Fair odds
1.18
Edge
+8.8%
Expected value: +$1.76 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.76 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 85.0% · fair market: 75.9% · edge: +12.0%
Model probabilities Carlos Alcaraz 85.0% · Jiri Lehecka 15.0% Why Carlos Alcaraz is favoured Carlos Alcaraz's Elo (2039) is +295 over Jiri Lehecka (1744); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 89.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 85.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 85.0% vs market 75.9% (edge +12.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.