Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sebastian Baez
To win
+$26.00
Total payout
$46.00
Joint prob
45.3%
Combined odds
2.30
Fair odds
2.21
Edge
+4.3%
Expected value: +$0.85 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.85 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 45.3% · fair market: 42.2% · edge: +7.4%
Model probabilities Juncheng Shang 54.7% · Sebastian Baez 45.3% Why Juncheng Shang is favoured Juncheng Shang's Elo (1526) is +32 over Sebastian Baez (1495); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 59.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 45.3% vs market 42.2% (edge +7.4%, suggested Kelly +3.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.