Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Botic van de Zandschulp
To win
+$58.00
Total payout
$78.00
Joint prob
28.4%
Combined odds
3.90
Fair odds
3.52
Edge
+10.7%
Expected value: +$2.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 28.4% · fair market: 24.0% · edge: +18.4%
Model probabilities Botic van de Zandschulp 28.4% · Alex de Minaur 71.6% Why Alex de Minaur is favoured Alex de Minaur's Elo (1774) is +148 over Botic van de Zandschulp (1627); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 20.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 28.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 28.4% vs market 24.0% (edge +18.4%, suggested Kelly +3.7% of bankroll).